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1.
Phys Med ; 121: 103367, 2024 May.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38701625

PURPOSE: Diffusing alpha-emitters radiation therapy (DaRT) is a brachytherapy technique using α-particles to treat solid tumours. The high linear energy transfer (LET) and short range of α-particles make them good candidates for the targeted treatment of cancer. Treatment planning of DaRT requires a good understanding of the dose from α-particles and the other particles released in the 224Ra decay chain. METHODS: The Geant4 Monte Carlo toolkit has been used to simulate a DaRT seed to better understand the dose contribution from all particles and simulate the DNA damage due to this treatment. RESULTS: Close to the seed α-particles deliver the majority of dose, however at radial distances greater than 4 mm, the contribution of ß-particles is greater. The RBE has been estimated as a function of number of double strand breaks (DSBs) and complex DSBs. A maximum seed spacing of 5.5 mm and 6.5 mm was found to deliver at least 20 Gy RBE weighted dose between the seeds for RBEDSB and RBEcDSB respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The DNA damage changes with radial distance from the seed and has been found to become less complex with distance, which is potentially easier for the cell to repair. Close to the seed α-particles contribute the majority of dose, however the contribution from other particles cannot be neglected and may influence the choice of seed spacing.


Alpha Particles , DNA Damage , Monte Carlo Method , Alpha Particles/therapeutic use , Radiotherapy Dosage , Radiation Dosage , Relative Biological Effectiveness , Diffusion , Brachytherapy/methods , Humans , Linear Energy Transfer , Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted/methods , DNA Breaks, Double-Stranded/radiation effects
2.
Bull Math Biol ; 86(6): 70, 2024 May 08.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38717656

Practical limitations of quality and quantity of data can limit the precision of parameter identification in mathematical models. Model-based experimental design approaches have been developed to minimise parameter uncertainty, but the majority of these approaches have relied on first-order approximations of model sensitivity at a local point in parameter space. Practical identifiability approaches such as profile-likelihood have shown potential for quantifying parameter uncertainty beyond linear approximations. This research presents a genetic algorithm approach to optimise sample timing across various parameterisations of a demonstrative PK-PD model with the goal of aiding experimental design. The optimisation relies on a chosen metric of parameter uncertainty that is based on the profile-likelihood method. Additionally, the approach considers cases where multiple parameter scenarios may require simultaneous optimisation. The genetic algorithm approach was able to locate near-optimal sampling protocols for a wide range of sample number (n = 3-20), and it reduced the parameter variance metric by 33-37% on average. The profile-likelihood metric also correlated well with an existing Monte Carlo-based metric (with a worst-case r > 0.89), while reducing computational cost by an order of magnitude. The combination of the new profile-likelihood metric and the genetic algorithm demonstrate the feasibility of considering the nonlinear nature of models in optimal experimental design at a reasonable computational cost. The outputs of such a process could allow for experimenters to either improve parameter certainty given a fixed number of samples, or reduce sample quantity while retaining the same level of parameter certainty.


Algorithms , Computer Simulation , Mathematical Concepts , Models, Biological , Monte Carlo Method , Likelihood Functions , Humans , Dose-Response Relationship, Drug , Research Design/statistics & numerical data , Models, Genetic , Uncertainty
3.
PLoS One ; 19(5): e0298897, 2024.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38722980

To estimate the economic and financial viability of a pig farm in central sub-tropical Mexico within a 5-year planning horizon, a Monte Carlo simulation model was utilized. Net returns were projected using simulated values for the distribution of input and product processes, establishing 2021 as base scenario. A stochastic modelling approach was employed to determine the economic and financial outlook. The findings reveal a panorama of economic and financial viability. Net income increased by 555%, return on assets rose from 3.36% in 2022 to 11.34% in 2026, and the probability of decapitalization dropped from 58% to 13%, respectively in the aforesaid periods. Similarly, the probability of obtaining negative net income decreased from 40% in 2022 to 18% in 2026. The technological, productive, and economic management of the production unit allowed for a favorable scenario within the planning horizon. There is a growing interest in predicting the economic sectors worth investing in and supporting, considering their economic and development performance. This research offers both methodological and scientific evidence to demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a planning schedule and validating the suitability of the pork sector for public investment and support.


Farms , Mexico , Animals , Swine , Farms/economics , Models, Economic , Animal Husbandry/economics , Monte Carlo Method , Prospective Studies , Income
4.
PLoS One ; 19(5): e0303199, 2024.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38723048

This paper presents an optimized preparation process for external ointment using the Definitive Screening Design (DSD) method. The ointment is a Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) formula developed by Professor WYH, a renowned TCM practitioner in Jiangsu Province, China, known for its proven clinical efficacy. In this study, a stepwise regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between key process factors (such as mixing speed and time) and rheological parameters. Machine learning techniques, including Monte Carlo simulation, decision tree analysis, and Gaussian process, were used for parameter optimization. Through rigorous experimentation and verification, we have successfully identified the optimal preparation process for WYH ointment. The optimized parameters included drug ratio of 24.5%, mixing time of 8 min, mixing speed of 1175 rpm, petroleum dosage of 79 g, liquid paraffin dosage of 6.7 g. The final ointment formulation was prepared using method B. This research not only contributes to the optimization of the WYH ointment preparation process but also provides valuable insights and practical guidance for designing the preparation processes of other TCM ointments. This advanced DSD method enhances the screening approach for identifying the best preparation process, thereby improving the scientific rigor and quality of TCM ointment preparation processes.


Machine Learning , Ointments , Rheology , Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry , Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage , Medicine, Chinese Traditional , Drug Compounding/methods , Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate/chemistry , Monte Carlo Method
5.
JAMA Health Forum ; 5(5): e240816, 2024 May 03.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38728022

Importance: Life expectancy is a key measure of overall population health. Life expectancy estimates for youth with HIV in the US are needed in the current HIV care and treatment context to guide health policies and resource allocation. Objective: To compare life expectancy between 18-year-old youth with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV), youth with nonperinatally acquired HIV (NPHIV), and youth without HIV. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a US-focused adolescent-specific Monte Carlo state-transition HIV model, we simulated individuals from age 18 years until death. We estimated probabilities of HIV treatment and care engagement, HIV progression, clinical events, and mortality from observational cohorts and clinical trials for model input parameters. The simulated individuals were 18-year-old race and ethnicity-matched youth with PHIV, youth with NPHIV, and youth without HIV; 47%, 85%, and 50% were assigned male sex at birth, respectively. Individuals were categorized by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined HIV acquisition risk: men who have sex with men, people who ever injected drugs, heterosexually active individuals at increased risk for HIV infection, or average risk for HIV infection. Distributions were 3%, 2%, 12%, and 83% for youth with PHIV and youth without HIV, and 80%, 6%, 14%, and 0% for youth with NPHIV, respectively. Among the simulated youth in this analysis, individuals were 61% Black, 24% Hispanic, and 15% White, respectively. Exposures: HIV status by timing of acquisition. Main Outcomes: Life expectancy loss for youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV: difference between mean projected life expectancy under current and ideal HIV care scenarios compared with youth without HIV. Uncertainty intervals reflect varying adolescent HIV-related mortality inputs (95% CIs). Results: Compared with youth without HIV (life expectancy: male, 76.3 years; female, 81.7 years), male youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 10.4 years (95% CI, 5.5-18.1) and 15.0 years (95% CI, 9.3-26.8); female youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 11.8 years (95% CI, 6.4-20.2) and 19.5 years (95% CI, 13.8-31.6), respectively. When receiving ideal HIV care, life expectancy losses were projected to improve for youth with PHIV (male: 0.5 years [95% CI, 0.3-1.8]: female: 0.6 years [95% CI, 0.4-2.1]) but were projected to persist for youth with NPHIV (male: 6.0 years [95% CI, 5.0-9.1]; female: 10.4 years [95% CI, 9.4-13.6]). Conclusions: This adolescent-focused microsimulation modeling analysis projected that youth with HIV would have shorter life expectancy than youth without HIV. Projected differences were larger for youth with NPHIV compared with youth with PHIV. Differences in mortality by sex at birth, sexual behavior, and injection drug use contributed to lower projected life expectancy among youth with NPHIV. Interventions focused on HIV care and social factors are needed to improve life expectancy for youth with HIV in the US.


HIV Infections , Life Expectancy , Humans , HIV Infections/mortality , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Adolescent , Male , Female , United States/epidemiology , Monte Carlo Method
6.
Int J Mol Sci ; 25(9)2024 Apr 26.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38731948

Based on the need for radiobiological databases, in this work, we mined experimental ionizing radiation data of human cells treated with X-rays, γ-rays, carbon ions, protons and α-particles, by manually searching the relevant literature in PubMed from 1980 until 2024. In order to calculate normal and tumor cell survival α and ß coefficients of the linear quadratic (LQ) established model, as well as the initial values of the double-strand breaks (DSBs) in DNA, we used WebPlotDigitizer and Python programming language. We also produced complex DNA damage results through the fast Monte Carlo code MCDS in order to complete any missing data. The calculated α/ß values are in good agreement with those valued reported in the literature, where α shows a relatively good association with linear energy transfer (LET), but not ß. In general, a positive correlation between DSBs and LET was observed as far as the experimental values are concerned. Furthermore, we developed a biophysical prediction model by using machine learning, which showed a good performance for α, while it underscored LET as the most important feature for its prediction. In this study, we designed and developed the novel radiobiological 'RadPhysBio' database for the prediction of irradiated cell survival (α and ß coefficients of the LQ model). The incorporation of machine learning and repair models increases the applicability of our results and the spectrum of potential users.


Cell Survival , DNA Breaks, Double-Stranded , Linear Energy Transfer , Radiation, Ionizing , Radiobiology , Humans , Cell Survival/radiation effects , Radiobiology/methods , DNA Breaks, Double-Stranded/radiation effects , Databases, Factual , Monte Carlo Method
7.
Int J Mol Sci ; 25(9)2024 Apr 26.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38731956

X-ray fluorescence imaging (XFI) can localize diagnostic or theranostic entities utilizing nanoparticle (NP)-based probes at high resolution in vivo, in vitro, and ex vivo. However, small-animal benchtop XFI systems demonstrating high spatial resolution (variable from sub-millimeter to millimeter range) in vivo are still limited to lighter elements (i.e., atomic number Z≤45). This study investigates the feasibility of focusing hard X-rays from solid-target tubes using ellipsoidal lens systems composed of mosaic graphite crystals with the aim of enabling high-resolution in vivo XFI applications with mid-Z (42≤Z≤64) elements. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to characterize the proposed focusing-optics concept and provide quantitative predictions of the XFI sensitivity, in silico tumor-bearing mice models loaded with palladium (Pd) and barium (Ba) NPs. Based on simulation results, the minimum detectable total mass of PdNPs per scan position is expected to be on the order of a few hundred nanograms under in vivo conform conditions. PdNP masses as low as 150 ng to 50 ng could be detectable with a resolution of 600 µm when imaging abdominal tumor lesions across a range of low-dose (0.8 µGy) to high-dose (8 µGy) exposure scenarios. The proposed focusing-optics concept presents a potential step toward realizing XFI with conventional X-ray tubes for high-resolution applications involving interesting NP formulations.


Graphite , Graphite/chemistry , Animals , Mice , Optical Imaging/methods , Monte Carlo Method , Nanoparticles/chemistry , Palladium/chemistry , Computer Simulation , Spectrometry, X-Ray Emission/methods
8.
Opt Lett ; 49(10): 2669-2672, 2024 May 15.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38748132

Central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) is an important parameter for assessing global oxygen usage and guiding clinical interventions. However, measuring ScvO2 requires invasive catheterization. As an alternative, we aim to noninvasively and continuously measure changes in oxygen saturation of the internal jugular vein (SijvO2) by a multi-channel near-infrared spectroscopy system. The relation between the measured reflectance and changes in SijvO2 is modeled by Monte Carlo simulations and used to build a prediction model using deep neural networks (DNNs). The prediction model is tested with simulated data to show robustness to individual variations in tissue optical properties. The proposed technique is promising to provide a noninvasive tool for monitoring the stability of brain oxygenation in broad patient populations.


Jugular Veins , Monte Carlo Method , Oxygen Saturation , Jugular Veins/physiology , Humans , Oxygen Saturation/physiology , Neural Networks, Computer , Oxygen/metabolism , Spectroscopy, Near-Infrared/methods , Male
9.
Biometrics ; 80(2)2024 Mar 27.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38742907

We propose a new non-parametric conditional independence test for a scalar response and a functional covariate over a continuum of quantile levels. We build a Cramer-von Mises type test statistic based on an empirical process indexed by random projections of the functional covariate, effectively avoiding the "curse of dimensionality" under the projected hypothesis, which is almost surely equivalent to the null hypothesis. The asymptotic null distribution of the proposed test statistic is obtained under some mild assumptions. The asymptotic global and local power properties of our test statistic are then investigated. We specifically demonstrate that the statistic is able to detect a broad class of local alternatives converging to the null at the parametric rate. Additionally, we recommend a simple multiplier bootstrap approach for estimating the critical values. The finite-sample performance of our statistic is examined through several Monte Carlo simulation experiments. Finally, an analysis of an EEG data set is used to show the utility and versatility of our proposed test statistic.


Computer Simulation , Models, Statistical , Monte Carlo Method , Humans , Electroencephalography/statistics & numerical data , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Biometry/methods , Statistics, Nonparametric
10.
PLoS One ; 19(5): e0291183, 2024.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38713711

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomisation (MR) is the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables. Mode-based estimators (MBE) are one of the most popular types of estimators used in univariable-MR studies and is often used as a sensitivity analysis for pleiotropy. However, because there are no plurality valid regression estimators, modal estimators for multivariable-MR have been under-explored. METHODS: We use the residual framework for multivariable-MR to introduce two multivariable modal estimators: multivariable-MBE, which uses IVW to create residuals fed into a traditional plurality valid estimator, and an estimator which instead has the residuals fed into the contamination mixture method (CM), multivariable-CM. We then use Monte-Carlo simulations to explore the performance of these estimators when compared to existing ones and re-analyse the data used by Grant and Burgess (2021) looking at the causal effect of intelligence, education, and household income on Alzheimer's disease as an applied example. RESULTS: In our simulation, we found that multivariable-MBE was generally too variable to be much use. Multivariable-CM produced more precise estimates on the other hand. Multivariable-CM performed better than MR-Egger in almost all settings, and Weighted Median under balanced pleiotropy. However, it underperformed Weighted Median when there was a moderate amount of directional pleiotropy. Our re-analysis supported the conclusion of Grant and Burgess (2021), that intelligence had a protective effect on Alzheimer's disease, while education, and household income do not have a causal effect. CONCLUSIONS: Here we introduced two, non-regression-based, plurality valid estimators for multivariable MR. Of these, "multivariable-CM" which uses IVW to create residuals fed into a contamination-mixture model, performed the best. This estimator uses a plurality of variants valid assumption, and appears to provide precise and unbiased estimates in the presence of balanced pleiotropy and small amounts of directional pleiotropy.


Mendelian Randomization Analysis , Mendelian Randomization Analysis/methods , Humans , Alzheimer Disease/genetics , Monte Carlo Method , Multivariate Analysis , Computer Simulation , Genetic Variation , Software
11.
J Biomed Opt ; 29(9): 093502, 2024 Sep.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38715718

Significance: Developing stable, robust, and affordable tissue-mimicking phantoms is a prerequisite for any new clinical application within biomedical optics. To this end, a thorough understanding of the phantom structure and optical properties is paramount. Aim: We characterized the structural and optical properties of PlatSil SiliGlass phantoms using experimental and numerical approaches to examine the effects of phantom microstructure on their overall optical properties. Approach: We employed scanning electron microscope (SEM), hyperspectral imaging (HSI), and spectroscopy in combination with Mie theory modeling and inverse Monte Carlo to investigate the relationship between phantom constituent and overall phantom optical properties. Results: SEM revealed that microspheres had a broad range of sizes with average (13.47±5.98) µm and were also aggregated, which may affect overall optical properties and warrants careful preparation to minimize these effects. Spectroscopy was used to measure pigment and SiliGlass absorption coefficient in the VIS-NIR range. Size distribution was used to calculate scattering coefficients and observe the impact of phantom microstructure on scattering properties. The results were surmised in an inverse problem solution that enabled absolute determination of component volume fractions that agree with values obtained during preparation and explained experimentally observed spectral features. HSI microscopy revealed pronounced single-scattering effects that agree with single-scattering events. Conclusions: We show that knowledge of phantom microstructure enables absolute measurements of phantom constitution without prior calibration. Further, we show a connection across different length scales where knowledge of precise phantom component constitution can help understand macroscopically observable optical properties.


Monte Carlo Method , Phantoms, Imaging , Microscopy, Electron, Scanning , Scattering, Radiation , Microspheres , Hyperspectral Imaging/methods , Hyperspectral Imaging/instrumentation
12.
J Biomed Opt ; 29(9): 093503, 2024 Sep.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38715717

Significance: Hyperspectral dark-field microscopy (HSDFM) and data cube analysis algorithms demonstrate successful detection and classification of various tissue types, including carcinoma regions in human post-lumpectomy breast tissues excised during breast-conserving surgeries. Aim: We expand the application of HSDFM to the classification of tissue types and tumor subtypes in pre-histopathology human breast lumpectomy samples. Approach: Breast tissues excised during breast-conserving surgeries were imaged by the HSDFM and analyzed. The performance of the HSDFM is evaluated by comparing the backscattering intensity spectra of polystyrene microbead solutions with the Monte Carlo simulation of the experimental data. For classification algorithms, two analysis approaches, a supervised technique based on the spectral angle mapper (SAM) algorithm and an unsupervised technique based on the K-means algorithm are applied to classify various tissue types including carcinoma subtypes. In the supervised technique, the SAM algorithm with manually extracted endmembers guided by H&E annotations is used as reference spectra, allowing for segmentation maps with classified tissue types including carcinoma subtypes. Results: The manually extracted endmembers of known tissue types and their corresponding threshold spectral correlation angles for classification make a good reference library that validates endmembers computed by the unsupervised K-means algorithm. The unsupervised K-means algorithm, with no a priori information, produces abundance maps with dominant endmembers of various tissue types, including carcinoma subtypes of invasive ductal carcinoma and invasive mucinous carcinoma. The two carcinomas' unique endmembers produced by the two methods agree with each other within <2% residual error margin. Conclusions: Our report demonstrates a robust procedure for the validation of an unsupervised algorithm with the essential set of parameters based on the ground truth, histopathological information. We have demonstrated that a trained library of the histopathology-guided endmembers and associated threshold spectral correlation angles computed against well-defined reference data cubes serve such parameters. Two classification algorithms, supervised and unsupervised algorithms, are employed to identify regions with carcinoma subtypes of invasive ductal carcinoma and invasive mucinous carcinoma present in the tissues. The two carcinomas' unique endmembers used by the two methods agree to <2% residual error margin. This library of high quality and collected under an environment with no ambient background may be instrumental to develop or validate more advanced unsupervised data cube analysis algorithms, such as effective neural networks for efficient subtype classification.


Algorithms , Breast Neoplasms , Mastectomy, Segmental , Microscopy , Humans , Breast Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Breast Neoplasms/surgery , Breast Neoplasms/pathology , Female , Mastectomy, Segmental/methods , Microscopy/methods , Breast/diagnostic imaging , Breast/pathology , Breast/surgery , Hyperspectral Imaging/methods , Margins of Excision , Monte Carlo Method , Image Processing, Computer-Assisted/methods
13.
Clin Oral Investig ; 28(6): 301, 2024 May 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38710794

OBJECTIVES: To undertake a cost-effectiveness analysis of restorative treatments for a first permanent molar with severe molar incisor hypomineralization from the perspective of the Brazilian public system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two models were constructed: a one-year decision tree and a ten-year Markov model, each based on a hypothetical cohort of one thousand individuals through Monte Carlo simulation. Eight restorative strategies were evaluated: high viscosity glass ionomer cement (HVGIC); encapsulated GIC; etch and rinse adhesive + composite; self-etch adhesive + composite; preformed stainless steel crown; HVGIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite; HVGIC + self-etch adhesive + composite, and encapsulated GIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite. Effectiveness data were sourced from the literature. Micro-costing was applied using 2022 USD market averages with a 5% variation. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), net monetary benefit (%NMB), and the budgetary impact were obtained. RESULTS: Cost-effective treatments included HVGIC (%NMB = 0%/ 0%), encapsulated GIC (%NMB = 19.4%/ 19.7%), and encapsulated GIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite (%NMB = 23.4%/ 24.5%) at 1 year and 10 years, respectively. The benefit gain of encapsulated GIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite in relation to encapsulated GIC was small when compared to the cost increase at 1 year (gain of 3.28% and increase of USD 24.26) and 10 years (gain of 4% and increase of USD 15.54). CONCLUSION: Within the horizon and perspective analyzed, the most cost-effective treatment was encapsulated GIC restoration. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study can provide information for decision-making.


Cost-Benefit Analysis , Dental Enamel Hypoplasia , Dental Restoration, Permanent , Glass Ionomer Cements , Humans , Brazil , Dental Enamel Hypoplasia/therapy , Dental Restoration, Permanent/methods , Dental Restoration, Permanent/economics , Glass Ionomer Cements/therapeutic use , Decision Trees , Molar , Monte Carlo Method , Markov Chains , Molar Hypomineralization
14.
AAPS J ; 26(3): 53, 2024 Apr 23.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38722435

The standard errors (SE) of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the population parameter vector in nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEM) are usually estimated using the inverse of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). However, at a finite distance, i.e. far from the asymptotic, the FIM can underestimate the SE of NLMEM parameters. Alternatively, the standard deviation of the posterior distribution, obtained in Stan via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, has been shown to be a proxy for the SE, since, under some regularity conditions on the prior, the limiting distributions of the MLE and of the maximum a posterior estimator in a Bayesian framework are equivalent. In this work, we develop a similar method using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm in parallel to the stochastic approximation expectation maximisation (SAEM) algorithm, implemented in the saemix R package. We assess this method on different simulation scenarios and data from a real case study, comparing it to other SE computation methods. The simulation study shows that our method improves the results obtained with frequentist methods at finite distance. However, it performed poorly in a scenario with the high variability and correlations observed in the real case study, stressing the need for calibration.


Algorithms , Computer Simulation , Monte Carlo Method , Nonlinear Dynamics , Uncertainty , Likelihood Functions , Bayes Theorem , Humans , Models, Statistical
15.
Environ Geochem Health ; 46(6): 183, 2024 May 02.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38696054

Pollution of water resources with nitrate is currently one of the major challenges at the global level. In order to make macro-policy decisions in water safety plans, it is necessary to carry out nitrate risk assessment in underground water, which has not been done in Fars province for all urban areas. In the current study, 9494 drinking water samples were collected in four seasons in 32 urban areas of Fars province in Iran, between 2017 and 2021 to investigate the non-carcinogenic health risk assessment. Geographical distribution maps of hazard quotient were drawn using geographical information system software. The results showed that the maximum amount of nitrate in water samples in 4% of the samples in 2021, 2.5% of the samples in 2020 and 3% of the samples in 2019 were more than the standard declared by World Health Organization guidelines (50 mg/L). In these cases, the maximum amount of nitrate was reported between 82 and 123 mg/L. The HQ values for infants did not exceed 1 in any year, but for children (44% ± 10.8), teenagers (10.8% ± 8.4), and adults (3.2% ± 1.7) exceeded 1 in cities, years, and seasons, indicating that three age groups in the studied area are at noticeably significant non-carcinogenic risk. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed that the average value of non-carcinogenic risk was less than 1 for all age groups. Moreover, the maximum HQ values (95%) were higher than 1 for both children and teenager, indicating a significant non-carcinogenic risk for the two age groups.


Drinking Water , Geographic Information Systems , Monte Carlo Method , Nitrates , Water Pollutants, Chemical , Nitrates/analysis , Risk Assessment , Iran , Drinking Water/chemistry , Drinking Water/analysis , Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis , Humans , Adolescent , Cities , Infant , Child , Adult , Environmental Monitoring/methods
16.
PLoS One ; 19(5): e0289822, 2024.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38691561

Histograms are frequently used to perform a preliminary study of data, such as finding outliers and determining the distribution's shape. It is common knowledge that choosing an appropriate number of bins is crucial to revealing the right information. It's also well known that using bins of different widths, which called unequal bin width, is preferable to using bins of equal width if the bin width is selected carefully. However this is a much difficult issue. In this research, a novel approach to AIC for histograms with unequal bin widths was proposed. We demonstrate the advantage of the suggested approach in comparison to others using both extensive Monte Carlo simulations and empirical examples.


Monte Carlo Method , Models, Statistical , Computer Simulation , Algorithms , Humans
17.
Bioresour Technol ; 401: 130753, 2024 Jun.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38685516

This work proposes a process design and techno-economic assessment for the production of γ-valerolactone from lignocellulosic derived fructose at industrial scale, with the aim of exploring its feasibility, identifying potential obstacles, and suggesting improvements in the context of France. First, the conceptual process design is developed, the process modelled and optimized. Second, different potential scenarios for the energy supply to the process are analyzed by means of a set of economic key performance indicators, aimed at highlighting the best potential profitability scenario for the sustainable exploitation of waste biomass in the context analyzed. The lowest Minimum Selling Price for GVL is obtained at 10 kt/y plant fueled by biomass, i.e. 1.89 €/kg, along with the highest end-of-live revenue, i.e. 113 M€. Finally, a sensitivity and uncertainties analysis, based on Monte Carlo simulations, are carried out on the results in order to test their robustness with respect to key input parameters.


Biomass , Fructose , Lactones , Lactones/chemistry , Fructose/chemistry , Biotechnology/methods , Biotechnology/economics , Monte Carlo Method
18.
Lupus Sci Med ; 11(1)2024 Apr 30.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38688714

OBJECTIVE: Characterise the relationship between hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) blood levels and the number of missed doses, accounting for dosage, dose timing and the large variability in pharmacokinetics (PK) between patients. METHODS: We externally validated a published PK model and then conducted dosing simulations. We developed a virtual population of 1000 patients for each dosage across a range of body weights and PK variability. Using the model, 10 Monte Carlo simulations for each patient were conducted to derive predicted whole blood concentrations every hour over 24 hours (240 000 HCQ levels at steady state). To determine the impact of missed doses on levels, we randomly deleted a fixed proportion of doses. RESULTS: For patients receiving HCQ 400 mg daily, simulated random blood levels <200 ng/mL were exceedingly uncommon in fully adherent patients (<0.1%). In comparison, with 80% of doses missed, approximately 60% of concentrations were <200 ng/mL. However, this cut-off was highly insensitive and would miss many instances of severe non-adherence. Average levels quickly dropped to <200 ng/mL after 2-4 days of missed doses. Additionally, mean levels decreased by 29.9% between peak and trough measurements. CONCLUSIONS: We propose an algorithm to optimally interpret HCQ blood levels and approximate the number of missed doses, incorporating the impact of dosage, dose timing and pharmacokinetic variability. No single cut-off has adequate combinations of both sensitivity and specificity, and cut-offs are dependent on the degree of targeted non-adherence. Future studies should measure trough concentrations to better identify target HCQ levels for non-adherence and efficacy.


Hydroxychloroquine , Medication Adherence , Monte Carlo Method , Hydroxychloroquine/pharmacokinetics , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use , Hydroxychloroquine/blood , Humans , Medication Adherence/statistics & numerical data , Antirheumatic Agents/pharmacokinetics , Antirheumatic Agents/blood , Antirheumatic Agents/therapeutic use , Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic/drug therapy , Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic/blood , Computer Simulation , Models, Biological
19.
Med Phys ; 51(5): 3796-3805, 2024 May.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38588477

BACKGROUND: The Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE) of kilovoltage photon beams has been previously investigated in vitro and in silico using analytical methods. The estimated values range from 1.03 to 1.82 depending on the methodology and beam energies examined. PURPOSE: The focus of this work was to independently estimate RBE values for a range of clinically used kilovoltage beams (70-200 kVp) while investigating the suitability of using TOPAS-nBio for this task. METHODS: Previously validated spectra of clinical beams were used to generate secondary electron spectra at several depths in a water tank phantom via TOPAS Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Cell geometry was irradiated with the secondary electrons in TOPAS-nBio MC simulations. The deposited dose and the calculated number of DNA strand breaks were used to estimate RBE values. RESULTS: Monoenergetic secondary electron simulations revealed the highest direct and indirect double strand break yield at approximately 20 keV. The average RBE value for the kilovoltage beams was calculated to be 1.14. CONCLUSIONS: TOPAS-nBio was successfully used to estimate the RBE values for a range of clinical radiotherapy beams. The calculated value was in agreement with previous estimates, providing confidence in its clinical use in the future.


DNA Breaks, Double-Stranded , Monte Carlo Method , Relative Biological Effectiveness , DNA Breaks, Double-Stranded/radiation effects , Humans , Electrons , Radiotherapy Dosage , Photons , Computer Simulation , Phantoms, Imaging
20.
Phys Med Biol ; 69(10)2024 May 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38640916

Objective.Beam current transformers (BCT) are promising detectors for real-time beam monitoring in ultra-high dose rate (UHDR) electron radiotherapy. However, previous studies have reported a significant sensitivity of the BCT signal to changes in source-to-surface distance (SSD), field size, and phantom material which have until now been attributed to the fluctuating levels of electrons backscattered within the BCT. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this hypothesis, with the goal of understanding and mitigating the variations in BCT signal due to changes in irradiation conditions.Approach.Monte Carlo simulations and experimental measurements were conducted with a UHDR-capable intra-operative electron linear accelerator to analyze the impact of backscattered electrons on BCT signal. The potential influence of charge accumulation in media as a mechanism affecting BCT signal perturbation was further investigated by examining the effects of phantom conductivity and electrical grounding. Finally, the effectiveness of Faraday shielding to mitigate BCT signal variations is evaluated.Main Results.Monte Carlo simulations indicated that the fraction of electrons backscattered in water and on the collimator plastic at 6 and 9 MeV is lower than 1%, suggesting that backscattered electrons alone cannot account for the observed BCT signal variations. However, our experimental measurements confirmed previous findings of BCT response variation up to 15% for different field diameters. A significant impact of phantom type on BCT response was also observed, with variations in BCT signal as high as 14.1% when comparing measurements in water and solid water. The introduction of a Faraday shield to our applicators effectively mitigated the dependencies of BCT signal on SSD, field size, and phantom material.Significance.Our results indicate that variations in BCT signal as a function of SSD, field size, and phantom material are likely driven by an electric field originating in dielectric materials exposed to the UHDR electron beam. Strategies such as Faraday shielding were shown to effectively prevent these electric fields from affecting BCT signal, enabling reliable BCT-based electron UHDR beam monitoring.


Electrons , Monte Carlo Method , Phantoms, Imaging , Scattering, Radiation , Electrons/therapeutic use , Particle Accelerators , Radiation Dosage
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